The Mirage of Certainty

Forecasts are meant to give clarity. Instead, many only provide false comfort. By the time actuals are compared against forecasts, the damage is already done.

Where Does It Go Wrong?

• Forecasts built on outdated assumptions, not live data.
• Variations and prelim overruns excluded until it’s too late.
• Cash flow models not aligned with programme changes.
• Reports updated monthly instead of weekly, hiding risks.

The Root Cause

Forecasting often becomes a compliance exercise – numbers updated to satisfy reporting, rather than to guide decision-making. Without integration to real-time commercial and delivery data, forecasts are already out of date when they're published.

Real-world example:
On a £75m project, forecasts consistently showed a £1.2m profit. At final account, the job closed at break-even. Why? Variations worth £950k were never built into live forecasts.

How to Improve Forecasting

• Update forecasts weekly, linked to live data.
• Integrate cost, programme, and procurement changes.
• Stress-test assumptions against market benchmarks.
• Present forecasts as decision tools, not just reports.

Final Thought

Forecasts don’t fail because the numbers are wrong – they fail because they’re stale. Strong forecasting means seeing risk before it hits, not after.

#Forecasting #CommercialManagement #ConstructionFinance #RiskManagement #GinjoConstruction #QSInsights